Rough Cut Staff
Nov 11, 2019
Updated: Apr 5, 2020
Cruise in the early 90s. Roberts in the late 90s. Clooney in the 2000s. Hugh Grant...always.
Is there such thing as a sure thing in Hollywood anymore? We've endeavored to find out. In our first ever Draft Chat -- a recurring series where Rough Cut contributors will draft based on various movie-related topics -- we argue and make our picks for the most "bankable" people in tinseltown.
If you disagree or want to suggest a topic for future drafts, let us know. The text below has been slightly edited.
Zach D'Amico: Welcome to the Rough Cut Draft Chat!
As a reminder, this is our Most Bankable Draft -- the directors, actors, and other members of the filmmaking team who we think are the most "bankable" -- likeliest to produce big bucks at the box office and hardware come awards season.
Rules are simple: everyone has to draft two directors, three actors, and three "flex" -- screenwriters, editors, cinematographers, or others
Picks must be currently active, defined as 3 movies this decade, or, alternatively, all movies this decade if they are newer to the field.
Carson, do we have our randomized draft order?
Carson Cook: Yes we do - as follows:
1. Carson
2. Sara
3. Zach
4. Jonny
Zach: still think you rigged it so you can take Deakins first but whatever
Carson: Oh there's a CLEAR number one pick so I'm not complaining
Sara Murphy D'Amico: Okay Carson, what's your pick?
Carson: Alright, with the first pick in the draft...
Christopher Nolan
Sara: DAMMIT CARSON
Zach: Don’t forget how much the Oscars love to overlook him and his movies
Carson: He's gonna get a win eventually
And he's always gonna be in the running for a nom
Jonny Diaz: I think it’s a great pick. He’s one of the few brand name filmmakers that get audiences in seats, he’s had multiple screenplay noms, and he finally got over the director nomination hump.
Zach: hit us, Sara
Sara: Adam Driver
for best actor of my heart and of the last ten years
May he win in 2020
Zach: wow pull the knife out of my back
Jonny: The big question with Driver, imo, is whether he can be a box office draw post-Star Wars
but in terms of critical/awards potential, that’s a huge pick
Carson: Totally depends on if he wants to keep making blockbusters
Not sure he's as happy with it as some of the folks around him
Zach: Even if he never reached superstar status, his project choice is so on-point that he'll have at least some box office success for sure
Sara: I honestly love him in more low-key movies like Patterson but he excels at the more complex roles like in Marriage Story too
so it's a win-win
Jonny: Okay Zach, you’re up.
Zach: America's sweetheart
G R E T A
Greta Gerwig
Sara: EXCELLENT choice
Carson: For what position?!
I'm assuming actor
Jonny: So I see the D’Amicos are leaning veryyyy indie early
Zach: yes, Kylo Ren and the Director of the upcoming studio film Little Women -- very indie
in case it's unclear, I'm going director
Sara: really love that choice #ladybird
Zach: I acknowledge it's a bit risky, but the academy and hollywood are clearly in love with her, they have a gender problem when it comes to nominating directors, and her movies play to a very strong base that will always be there
plus with critical reactions for little women coming in, it appears she's 2/2
in a big way
Sara: snaps for all of that
Jonny: I’m with you on an accolades front, but I think there are much stronger box office picks--assuming we’re weighting both the same, I think it’s too early to take her.
Which is why, with my pick, I’m going with Ryan Coogler
Carson: 2nd on my board, great pick
Jonny: and with my second, I’m going with Jordan Peele, in directing
Carson: And 3rd, dammit
Sara: Hahaha
both good picks - especially Coogler
Jonny: One of the big reasons I picked them both is that they’re both clearly on an upward trajectory. They’re early in their filmmaking careers, and seem poised to capitalize on past success
Zach: I'm curious about how much of a box-office draw Coogler is without IP
Sara: I wonder if Peele will break out of the horror niche or if he's going to keep burying himself in that space
i'm fine with it but I bet he'd be good at doing com-drams too
Zach: I think that's the risk with Peele, right? That he leans more into Us-like movies that don't interest the academy
Jonny: I agree, but he already broke through once with horror, so we know he’s on the Academy’s radar. Plus, with the way he weaves social issues into his films, there will always be a “serious” angle to his work that Oscar voters can grab on to
I’d love to see him go back to comedy on the big screen, even if just once
Carson: I really think Coogler is going to be able to take his success and capitalize on it with more original projects
"From the director of Black Panther" is going to have some real appeal
Sara: Zach who's your next pick?
Zach: Bradley Cooper
actor
Jonny: Great move
Carson: That's a really excellent pick
Zach: I don't think there are a lot of actors who can still bring people to the movies regardless of the film, but I think he's as close as we have
plus the academy HAS to give him one soon???
for all our sanity
Jonny: We can only hope
Sara: honestly
Carson: One of the last truly bankable capital-M Movie Stars
Zach: hopefully someone can let him know he went in the second round and that will make up for everything
you're welcome, Brad
Jonny: I’ll text him, hold on
He says he just wants to take another look at you
Sara: I'm going to pick Saoirse Ronan
Because she is brilliant and has been in a bunch of big/great movies recently
Jonny: She feels almost certain to win an Oscar soon
Sara: I think she's up and coming
for sure
Jonny: If she gets the nom for Little Women, she’ll be only the second person to get four nominations by age 25
Zach: I think her versatility is undervalued, too. She carried Brooklyn, a period love-story, and then helped launch a small, indie coming-of-age to nearly $100 million and a best picture nom
Jonny: She had some misfires last year, but she’s so prolific and so talented. I think she’s a really solid bet.
Zach: I'm so fascinated by what she chooses to do next -- you know she has the awards points, and depending on project choice, I could see her blowing up
Carson: I have to thank the rest of you for leaving me with the top 2 actors on my board, both of whom I'll take now
Michael B. Jordan and Margot Robbie
Sara: Ethan Hawke and...
NICE
Jonny: UGH
MBJ is an excellent choice
Zach: agreed
Margot is a bit riskier!
Jonny: He feels like the Next Big Movie Star
Sara: ^^^
I think Margot is a great actor, but she needs parts that give her the space to show her stuff
Zach: This obviously isn't her fault, but the evidence isn't there that she can draw a huge audience as the sole lead in a movie
I'm confident she can -- but will she get the chance? Will audiences respond?
Carson: She hasn't necessarily shown it yet, but I think if we're looking to the future, she's the best bet to be successful in both worlds - the critical darling and the blockbuster draw
Sara: I think I, Tonya broke her out of the shadows and now she just needs a role that's a little more mainstream
Jonny: The new Harley Quinn/Birds of Prey movie will be a big text of her box office ability
Sara: Are we ready for my next pick?? Because I'm ready
ROGER DEAKINS FOR CINEMATOGRAPHER
Zach: WOWWWWW
Jonny: bad pick imo
Sara: Look i don't believe in drafting directors first
Carson: lol he's never getting another oscar, sorry Sara
Sara: okay but he has 149 nominations
Jonny: I don’t think the average audience member knows who he is though!
Sara: who cares??
they see his movies
all of them
Zach: it's an interesting draft strategy
take people who draw huge audiences because of how good their work is and who they work with, not because of their name
Carson: For something like this, it doesn't matter that the audience doesn't know him
Sara: right, that's why i picked him
Jonny: fair enough
Carson: I think it's a solid pick, he's decently high on my flex board
Sara: phew what a ride
Zach: more importantly, it's a FUN pick
we need more DP grenades
Sara: that's why you have me
Zach: I've been inspired
My pick: Hans Zimmer
Sara: oooooh
Carson: now THAT is a great pick
Jonny: ugh, I had him very high on my board
Sara: Excellent choice and excellent timing
Zach: Scores so many of the huge blockbusters, consistently gets awards recognition
more importantly, he's 22 years younger than John Williams
Jonny: He’s incredibly only won one Oscar in his career
Sara: and he had an asteroid belt named after him
Jonny: I wasn’t going to take a composer so early, but you guys may have forced my hand
so I’m going to go with Lin-Manuel Miranda, composer
and Amy Adams
Carson: BAD PICK
Sara: LOL
Jonny: HEAR ME OUT
Zach: guys we have entered the hot take zone in a serious way and I'm so here for it
also the world hates good things so Amy Adams will never win an Oscar, sorry
Jonny: Hollywood is so thirsty to give him an Oscar. He’s got an adaptation of In the Heights in the can for next year, and he would’ve won for Moana if it had been any other year
my dude is always working and has an incredible track record, it’s inevitable
Sara: he is amazing but I don't think he's going to be blowing up the box office for the next ten years
Carson: I don't think he's gonna do enough film work overall
Jonny: We’ll see. I think he’s all in with Disney, who as we know is the only entity allowed to make movies now.
Zach: what do folks think of the Adams pick?
Carson: I like it in theory
I think she'll get an Oscar eventually, but I'm worried she's slowing down a little
Sara: Agreed Carson
Jonny: Obviously we all know Adams’s awards track record, but I think she’s underrated as a box office draw too. Arrival made so many dollars
Sara: like Margot I think she needs roles that allow her to act at her full potential
Zach: Okay, for my pick: Emma Stone
Sara: OOH interesting
Jonny: good pick
Sara: hard to go wrong with emma
Zach: I think she's the perfect 50/50 split
And while she isn't quite as big of a draw yet as some others on my board, she's still super young, so I bumped her up
honestly every pick I have I'm deciding between seven people and then just pick a random eighth at the last minute in a moment of inspiration
Interesting question: anyone in this draft that would've been taken if this was held, say, 15 years ago?
The world looked so much different -- I imagine it'd be a lot more actor heavy
Carson: Yeah - Zimmer the most likely candidate maybe?
Once Johnny Williams was off the board of course
Jonny: Adams and Nolan might have--they would’ve been coming just off of Catch Me If You Can and Insomnia, respectively--but they would’ve been late, “this person has high potential” picks
Zach: Adams could've been the Robbie pick
Nolan almost a Gerwig/Peele type pick
fascinating
anyway, Sara, go ahead!
Sara: I choose Denis Villaneuve (director)
Zach: that is both a good pick and an envy-inducing pick
Sara: i'm excited to see what he does with Dune
Jonny: interesting. Dune will be a big test for him. I feel like the perception of Blade Runner 2049 is that it was a disappointment, even though it made a ton of money and got Deakins that oscar
Sara: I disagree about Blade Runner
Carson: He slipped for me - he strikes the right chord with a ton of people (me included), but I'm not sure if he's a big enough draw in the end
And Dune is a W E I R D property
Sara: I think he's going to do a couple big box office movies and then start doing more indie-Oscar nom work
Jonny: I like him a lot, but I’m not sure that the rest of the world does. Will he have another Arrival?
Zach: He had one before -- Sicario
I think the Sicario, Arrival, Blade Runner trifecta is pretty tough to compete with when it comes to balancing awards attention and box office + critical praise
Sara: in my view he's on an upward trajectory
Zach: Sicario and Arrival in particular are movies that I think could have easily bombed -- certainly in genres that are hit or miss -- but his quality brought people to the theater
Jonny: That’s true!
Zach: Your turn, Carson
Carson: Ugh, I really don't feel great about what I'm about to do
Sara: always a good sign in my book
Carson: I'm gonna take two writers for my flex spots
Quentin Tarantino and Adam McKay
Zach: woahhh
Sara: i wonder how many more movies Tarantino is actually going to make
Jonny: Even with Tarantino’s self-imposed retirement?
Zach: I assume in hopes that QT doesn't stick with his 10 movies and I'm done commitment?
Carson: I think more than he currently says lol
Zach: the team is critical, Carson
Carson: I also think that even if he doesn't direct more movies, that doesn't mean he's not going to write more movies
Jonny: Loophole!
Zach: I don't think an auteur like him lets go of a script
and lets someone do with it what they please
unless it's like robert rodriguez
Carson: In which case he'll just make them! But I think by taking him as a writer instead I hedge my bets
Sara: i think McKay is a little niche sometimes with his work
Zach: Sara, to your point, I wonder if people will get sick of his schtick
it was novel with the big sick, started to grate on people with Vice, which didn't make as much money -- will it get old? will he diversify?
Jonny: He can always go back to the comedy well
Carson: ^^ that's the thing with McKay, there's always the possibility of Step Brothers 2 hanging out there
And then I get box office AND oscar
Sara, your turn
Sara: I'm going to go with Justin Hurwitz (composer)
Carson: oh GREAT PICK imo
Sara: yes thank you
Jonny: good pick, my only concern is whether he’ll work enough. Does he score anybody else’s movies besides Chazelle’s?
That alone might be enough, to be fair
Sara: not yet but I can't see him stopping now
Jonny: It’s not a question of whether he can, just whether he wants to!
Zach: should we divert this into a slack chat inside the mind of justin hurwitz? I'm game
"I want to but I'm nervous about upsetting Damien -- did you see him on the stage when La La Land lost????"
okay, with my pick:
Aaron Sorkin, writer
on the condition that he stops directing his own scripts
Sara: hahaha
Carson: Wait, are we just shitting on Molly's Game now?
GOOD MOVIE
Sara: It was FINE
Jonny: I liked Molly’s Game!
(I have blacked out all the parts with Kevin Costner)
Zach: but PHENOMENAL SCRIPT
Sara: yes exactly
I think that's a solid pick
Zach: I also think, to an earlier point, he's actually one of the few screenwriters who brings people to the movies
Sara: He's an indisputably excellent writer and he will never stop writing
Carson: Letterboxd ratings for Molly's Game:
Zach - 4 stars
Sara - 4 stars
Carson - 4 stars
Jonny - 3.5 stars
Jonny: RECEIPTS
Zach: Ratings for his prior 3 scripts
Steve Jobs: 4.5 stars
Moneyball: 4.5 stars
Social Network: 5 stars
Plus MG only made $30 mil
how did I end up in the position of arguing AGAINST my pick??
Carson: lololol
It's a good pick! I was supporting you!
Zach: Okay Jonny, hit us with your double dip
Jonny: I’m ready to make everyone super MAD
because I’m taking HUGH JACKMAN
Sara: meh
Zach: I actually think it's a good pick
Sara: he's talented and a box office draw
Zach: he is, in fact, The Greatest Showman
Carson: Except his best performance since the prestige is ineligible for the Oscars this year, which is tough
Sara: honestly he was SO GOOD in bad education
like really really great
Jonny: Jackman single handedly carried Circus Musical to so much money
he’s talented, he’s always working, and he seems to be genuinely well-liked in Hollywood
Sara: wow all the teenage girls who love Zac Efron disagree
Zach: hahahaha
Carson: Guess I'm a teenage girl then
Sara: HAHAHA
honestly aren't we all
Jonny: I’ll also take Alexandre Desplat, composer
he’s so prolific, he works with great directors, the academy loves him, and he’s worked on major franchises
Carson: good pick but not the best composer left
Jonny: Maybe someday I’ll make a pick that doesn’t get ruthlessly mocked
Zach: I think it's a good pick!
your first two were roundly praised
Jonny: That’s true, I guess I peaked early
Zach: For my final director: David Fincher
Jonny: I would love for him to go back to making movies
Zach: he is?
He's making Mank
Carson: Theoretically
Zach: it's in the middle of filming
Sara: Ooh he's on my list too - great pick
Carson: I'm just bitter because I love him and he keeps dropping out of stuff
Zach: fair enough
look, here's the deal
if the Social Network 2 ever actually happens, I automatically win this draft
because I'll have Sorkin AND Fincher
Jonny: So devious
Carson: Unless Danny Boyle directs it...
I'll stop, I'm sorry
Jonny: quick, someone grab Jesse Eisenberg!
Zach: hahahah
Sara, your turn!
Sara: I'm gonna go Alex Garland for director
Jonny: oh interesting
Carson: oh damn, super solid pick
Zach: impossible to deny his quality
Sara: i like alien movie directors
Zach: he just needs studios who are actually willing to market his movies
Sara: A24?!?! are you reading this?!?!
Jonny: His next project looks like it’s a Hulu miniseries
Hopefully that lets him bounce back from Annihilation being absolutely buried at the box office
Carson: Cool, can't wait to be excited about it and never watch it!
Zach: That is also my relationship with 99% of television
"that looks cool, guess I'll watch another episode of The Good Place or re-watch the office"
Sara: ooh i would love to see him get into some original (movie) content on Hulu and Netflix
Carson: Stop trying to kill the theatrical experience Sara
Sara: thanks Marty
Carson: BTW, this draft will be available in 70mm in select cities
Zach: for three weeks
but not YOUR city, just select cities, but nobody will be able to find it
Jonny: Select Citywalk is a shopping mall in Delhi--that’s the only place this chat will be broadcast.
Carson: Alright, with three picks left, I'm going to wait on my final director slot
And go with Lupita Nyong'o
Jonny: GREAT pick
Carson: and Ludwig Göransson (composer)
Jonny: I thought about Goransson, but I have the same hesitation with him as I have with Hurwitz
will he make movies other than Cooglers? or will he just go back to producing Childish albums
Carson: Nolan dropped Zimmer for the guy...
Jonny: Oh, well that definitely changes things.
Zach: I thought Zimmer chose Dune over Tenet
Sara: BOOM
my pick verified
Carson: And Lupita is obviously going to be the world's biggest movie star
Shhhh
Jonny: If there’s any justice in the world, she should be
Sara: Agreed, she's great
Zach: plus you would've gotten double points for Us since she's in it twice
Carson: Lol, if I had to bet on a film it'd be tenet over dune Sara
Sara: Shhhh
Jonny: You guys take Tenet and Dune, no one’s going to see them because we all know Cinema will conclude with CATS
“You Will Believe” isn’t a tagline, it’s a threat.
Zach: okay Sara, hit us
Sara: Robert Pattinson
Jonny: god dammit
Zach: oh damn
Jonny: genius
Zach: he's batman
Sara: and he's just incredible
Jonny: honestly, how dare you
Carson: I FORGOT ABOUT THE BATMAN
Sara: in everything
Zach: but also weird and will eventually get awards
WE ARE ALL DUMB
sara is our based goddess
Carson: I literally thought "never gonna do a blockbuster again"
Sara: honestly I thought about him five seconds ago and was like SHIT
how have we not picked him?!
Jonny: To quote myself, approximately one hour ago: “Once again, Sara outsmarts us all”
Zach: you had a plan the whole time
Can't wait till you get the team together
Rob: "so she picked you before me, Roger? And you, Justin? Damn, did anyone get picked after me???"
Jonny: Alright Zach, you’re up.
Zach: Alright, going out on a limb just because I want written evidence when I am right
The Person of 2019
Florence Pugh
Jonny: Don’t you dare
NO
Sara: WOW
bold move
Jonny: Potential personified
Sara: yes totally
Zach: that's a great summary, Jonny
Sara: and great alliteration too
Carson: Hey, we're in the final rounds, might as well take some risks
Zach: but if you can pull off a Stephen Merchant wrestling comedy, an Ari Aster swedish-hellscape, and Little Women in the same year
caps off, take over the world now
Jonny: I look forward to our new small overlord’s reign
Zach: I know we were limited to 3 actors each
but this draft indicates just how far actor power has fallen
a ton of HUGE acting names still on the board
Jonny: So I think we’re at an interesting inflection point where it’s not clear how much longer the BIG crop of movie stars will be steadily working, and it’s not quite clear who the heirs apparent are
Zach: that's a great point
Carson: Not to be too cynical, but the heyday of the movie star may have come and gone
A real bummer, but I'm worried
Zach: It's tough to know if it's cyclical, though
Jonny: There are some people carrying big franchises, but it’s not clear if those actors can have box office life beyond the IP
but my next pick has had box office success across multiple genres, and has been in the 6th spot for her first Oscar nom several times
Carson: Didn't realize they let you see the nom counts!
Jonny: so with apologies to my other choice (love you Jake Gyllenhaal, you’re still my dude)
I’m going to take Emily Blunt
Sara: Interesting choice
Zach: I actually like it more than Jake, just cause I think he's at that point in his career where he's just saying "screw it, I want to be weird"
Jonny: Blunt is incredibly popular, she jumps between horror, drama, and comedy, and she’s got to get a nom soon, right??
Zach: and she can SING!
Sara: and dance
Jonny: I’m just building a musical over here, no one mind me
Sara: I would LOVE a movie with Blunt and Jackman
You go right ahead Jonny
Jonny: Jake and Emily are my dream cast for the film adaptation of Sunday in the Park with George I’ve always wanted, but I’ll take Hugh in a heartbeat
Anyway, with my last flex spot, I’ll take fellow musical lover Rian Johnson, screenwriter
Zach: that re-watch of The Last Jedi that FINALLY brought you around to the correct opinion is really influencing this pick
Carson: Taking him off the director board you bastard
Sara: LOVED Brick
and also Knives Out
so I have to applaud you
Jonny: I get one of the best up and coming filmmakers around, and I also sabotage Carson
so it’s a win win
Zach: with my final flex, it PAINS me to pass over Spike as writer
Sara: SIGH
Zach: but instead
he'll appreciate my last pick
MASSACHUSETTS NATIVE
Ruth Carter (costumer designer)
Sara: LOVE
I almost picked her
Carson: good pick
Sara: she's wonderful, can't say enough good things
Jonny: she’s fantastic
Carson: Alright Sara, last pick for you!
Sara: My pick: Sandy Powell
I was SURE no one was going to do a costume designer but now we have two
Jonny: I didn’t even think about costume designers, but that’s a smart pick
Carson: Yeah, I don't hate it
Feels like there's just a handful that are shoo-ins for noms year after year
Jonny: Okay Carson, close us out.
Carson: Ok, here we go
Jonny taking Rian Johnson has set this up to end with a bang
For my final director I'm taking a true wild card
Zach: if you finish with wes anderson I'll die
Sara: please be schults please be schults
Carson: Someone who can make a bazillion dollars or get oscar nominations when you don't even know he has a movie coming out
CLINT EASTWOOD
Sara: LOLOLOLOL
Zach: audibly cackling
Jonny: Jonny has exited the chat
Sara: Carson he is almost NINETY YEARS OLD
Carson: You laugh, but you LITERALLY NEVER KNOW with him
Sara: and still running drugs
Carson: Sara, he's made 9 movies THIS DECADE
Zach: hahahah
Sara: I mean I can't argue with those numbers but
Jonny: Quantity =/= quality
Sara: seems risky
Carson: American sniper released in January and made 350 million domestic 5 YEARS AGO
Zach: do you know who is making his EIGHTH movie of this decade and is almost TWENTY years younger???
STEVEN SPIELBERG
Jonny: for every American Sniper or Sully, you get a J. Edgar or a Jersey Boys
or that train movie
Carson: Thought about him, Eastwood the better pick at this point, hate to say it
Richard Jewell winning best picture, book it
Zach: i need to take a walk
Sara: honestly what an end
Jonny: Disagree, Spielberg’s got a Best Picture nominee and a $500M+ grossing movie more recently than Clint
Zach: jonny
don't bring facts to a knife fight
Jonny: sorry, I meant
Carson you’re dumb and I hate you
Carson: Lets count hardware though
Sara: probably a replaced hip
maybe a knee
OH you meant oscars sorry
Carson: It's a great pick, I win the draft
Ok Sara, you win
Joke of the night
Zach: hahahahaha
Carson: Let's do this again in 5 years and see how it's playing out